How much forest was lost in 2015?

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This is an archive of the Forest Pulse, which is updated annually using annual tree cover loss data to provide a comprehensive overview on where forests have been lost around the world. Annual updates are released each year and cover the previous year’s trends. View the latest analysis here

Global tree cover loss remains high, and emerging patterns reveal shifting contributors

By Mikaela Weisse, Liz Goldman, Nancy Harris, Matt Hansen, Svetlana Turubanova and Peter Potapov

Global Forest Watch released new satellite-based data showing how forests around the world changed in the year 2015. The data, produced through the analysis of roughly a million satellite images by the University of Maryland and Google, measures the death or removal of trees at least 5 meters tall within 30×30 meter areas. This can capture any number of sustainable or unsustainable activities, from the clearing of natural forests to the harvest of tree plantations, but when analyzed appropriately with other contextual data and information can serve as a proxy for deforestation (typically defined as the permanent conversion of forest land for another use). For 2015, the data reveal both positive stories—such as a possible slowing of tree cover loss in Colombia—and more worrisome trends, including rising rates of tree cover loss in Papua New Guinea, West Africa, and the Mekong Region. We explore those stories below, as well as what the data can tell us about the global state of forests.

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Oil palm implicated in new tree cover loss in Papua New Guinea and West Africa

Papua New Guinea experienced 70 percent more tree cover loss in 2015 than any year on record.

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Analysis of emerging “hot spots”—areas with statistically significant concentrations of tree cover loss—reveals clusters of new loss in intact forest landscapes (forests with minimal human footprint), indicating that these pristine areas are under heightened threat. Some of those hot spots also appear to overlap with fire alerts, suggesting that the 2015 outbreak of fires in Indonesia, many of which were related to oil palm plantations, also consumed Papua New Guinea, which shares a border with Indonesia on the island of New Guinea. (Read our separate analysis of 2015 tree cover loss in Indonesia here.)

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Oil palm expansion also likely contributed to the dramatic increase in tree cover loss in West Africa. In 2015, Liberia and Sierra Leone respectively experienced a 6- and 12-fold increase in tree cover loss rates compared to 2001. According to reports, West Africa is at high risk for deforestation from palm oil, with Liberia set to become a new frontier for development of the crop. Some of the rise in tree cover loss in this region could be due to changes in the algorithm that detects clearing. An update to the tree cover loss methodology in 2013 improved the way the algorithm detects clearing of tall shrubs resulting in more detection of tree cover loss in dry forests in particular. Future data updates should confirm whether this is a true uptick in loss, or due to these methodological changes.

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Colombia’s tree cover loss slows, at least for now

Colombia’s tree cover loss rate has dropped nearly 50 percent since its peak in 2007. National government statistics confirm this trend, indicating that the deforestation rate from 2010 to 2015 was nearly half that of 2000 to 2010. There is no consensus on why loss has slowed, though the Colombian government’s commitment to zero net deforestation in the Amazon by 2020 could be a factor. Hot spot analysis shows a significant drop in tree cover loss in the mountainous areas in Medellin and the departments (states) of Caquetá and Guaviare between the Andes and the Amazon. Major climate financing and international funds granted to Caquetá and Guaviare may be playing a role in the decline.

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However, recent shifts in political dynamics could make this decline short-lived. FARC, Colombia’s largest rebel group, has indirectly reduced deforestation in the Colombian Amazon over decades by warding off outsiders with their presence. Under a new peace deal, FARC units are set to withdraw from their posts within the forest, which could make those areas more vulnerable to agricultural expansion, illegal logging and illegal mining.

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Mekong countries losing forests to development

Mekong Basin countries are experiencing rising tree cover loss rates, especially Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. Clearing for plantationsagriculturelogging and infrastructure development are to blame for much of the loss. Only 6 percent of the 2015 tree cover loss in Cambodia occurred in existing plantations, meaning the other 94 percent (124,518 hectares or 307,690 acres) is likely loss of natural forest and not harvesting of planted trees. Hot spots analysis in the Mekong Basin shows new hot spots in northern Laos that could be associated deforestation from recent dam infrastructure development along the Mekong River, while hot spots south of the basin suggest plantation development is the main driver.

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Emerging patterns over time

Global tree cover loss remained high in 2015. That year, the world lost nearly 20 million hectares (49 million acres) of tree cover, an area the size of Uganda. Though the current estimate for 2015 tree cover loss is lower than that of 2014, the overall trend of global tree cover loss (defined as a three-year moving average indicated by the red line in the chart below) reached the second-highest point on record in 2015. The world also lost 47 percent more tree cover in 2015 than in 2001.

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As part of the ongoing effort to refine and improve the accuracy of the data, the update also recalculated previous years’ tree cover loss using newly available satellite images and picked up an additional 5 million hectares of loss (12 million acres) in 2014 (read this post to understand why and how data can be revised from year-to-year). While the new data paint a clear picture of tree cover loss hot spots across the tropics, the status of boreal and temperate forests is less definitive. The 2015 data show Canada, Russia and the United States as the top three contributors to global tree cover loss (they are also the countries with the greatest amount of forest). However, without information on timber harvesting and tree cover gain (caused by reforestation or natural regeneration), it is difficult to say how much forest is actually lost in these countries. We anticipate annual tree cover gain data will be available in 2018, which will allow us to more accurately monitor forest change in these countries. Although one year does not make a trend, annual updates provide insight into patterns of tree cover loss over time. Additionally, near real-time data like GLAD alerts and active fire alerts as well as analysis tools like emerging hot spots can help us gather more information about when, where and why losses occur while there’s still time to stop further damage.

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Visit Global Forest Watch to keep an eye on how tree cover changes in the regions spotlighted above.

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Dark surfaces absorb the rays from the sun (low albedo).\r\n"},"94":{"name":"biodiversity intactness","description":"The proportion and abundance of a location\u0027s original forest community (number of species and individuals) that remain.\u0026nbsp;\r\n"},"95":{"name":"biodiversity significance","description":"The importance of an area for the persistence of forest-dependent species based on range rarity.\r\n"},"142":{"name":"boundary plantings","description":"Trees planted along boundaries or property lines to mark them well.\r\n"},"98":{"name":"carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)","description":"Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is a measure used to aggregate emissions from various greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the basis of their 100-year global warming potentials by equating non-CO2 GHGs to the equivalent amount of CO2.\r\n"},"99":{"name":"CO2e","description":"Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is a measure used to aggregate emissions from various greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the basis of their 100-year global warming potentials by equating non-CO2 GHGs to the equivalent amount of CO2.\r\n"},"1":{"name":"deforestation","description":"The change from forest to another land cover or land use, such as forest to plantation or forest to urban area.\r\n"},"77":{"name":"deforested","description":"The change from forest to another land cover or land use, such as forest to plantation or forest to urban area.\r\n"},"76":{"name":"degradation","description":"The reduction in a forest\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\n"},"75":{"name":"degraded","description":"The reduction in a forest\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\n"},"79":{"name":"disturbances","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"68":{"name":"disturbed","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"65":{"name":"driver of tree cover loss","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\n"},"70":{"name":"drivers of loss","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\n"},"81":{"name":"drivers of tree cover loss","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\n"},"102":{"name":"evapotranspiration","description":"When solar energy hitting a forest converts liquid water into water vapor (carrying energy as latent heat) through evaporation and transpiration.\r\n"},"2":{"name":"forest","description":"Forests include tree cover greater than 30 percent tree canopy density and greater than 5 meters in height as mapped at a 30-meter Landsat pixel scale.\r\n"},"3":{"name":"forest concession","description":"A legal agreement allowing an entity the right to manage a public forest for production purposes.\r\n"},"90":{"name":"forest concessions","description":"A legal agreement allowing an entity the right to manage a public forest for production purposes.\r\n"},"53":{"name":"forest degradation","description":"The reduction in a forest\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\n"},"54":{"name":"forest disturbance","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"100":{"name":"forest disturbances","description":"A discrete event that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"5":{"name":"forest fragmentation","description":"The breaking of large, contiguous forests into smaller pieces, with other land cover types interspersed.\r\n"},"6":{"name":"forest management plan","description":"A plan that documents the stewardship and use of forests and other wooded land to meet environmental, economic, social, and cultural objectives. Such plans are typically implemented by companies in forest concessions.\r\n"},"62":{"name":"forests","description":"Forests include tree cover greater than 30 percent tree canopy density and greater than 5 meters in height as mapped at a 30-meter Landsat pixel scale.\r\n"},"69":{"name":"fragmentation","description":"The breaking of large, contiguous forests into smaller pieces, with other land cover types interspersed.\r\n"},"80":{"name":"fragmented","description":"The breaking of large, contiguous forests into smaller pieces, with other land cover types interspersed.\r\n"},"74":{"name":"gain","description":"The establishment of tree canopy in an area that previously had no tree cover. Tree cover gain may indicate a number of potential activities, including natural forest growth or the crop rotation cycle of tree plantations.\r\n"},"143":{"name":"global land squeeze","description":"Pressure on finite land resources to produce food, feed and fuel for a growing human population while also sustaining biodiversity and providing ecosystem services.\r\n"},"7":{"name":"hectare","description":"One hectare equals 100 square meters, 2.47 acres, or 0.01 square kilometers and is about the size of a rugby field. A football pitch is slightly smaller than a hectare (pitches are between 0.62 and 0.82 hectares).\r\n"},"66":{"name":"hectares","description":"One hectare equals 100 square meters, 2.47 acres, or 0.01 square kilometers and is about the size of a rugby field. A football pitch is slightly smaller than a hectare (pitches are between 0.62 and 0.82 hectares).\r\n"},"67":{"name":"intact","description":"A forest that contains no signs of human activity or habitat fragmentation as determined by remote sensing images and is large enough to maintain all native biological biodiversity.\r\n"},"78":{"name":"intact forest","description":"A forest that contains no signs of human activity or habitat fragmentation as determined by remote sensing images and is large enough to maintain all native biological biodiversity.\r\n"},"8":{"name":"intact forests","description":"A forest that contains no signs of human activity or habitat fragmentation as determined by remote sensing images and is large enough to maintain all native biological biodiversity.\r\n"},"55":{"name":"land and environmental defenders","description":"People who peacefully promote and protect rights related to land and\/or the environment.\r\n"},"9":{"name":"loss driver","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\n"},"10":{"name":"low tree canopy density","description":"Less than 30 percent tree canopy density.\r\n"},"84":{"name":"managed forest concession","description":"Areas where governments have given rights to private companies to harvest timber and other wood products from natural forests on public lands.\r\n"},"83":{"name":"managed forest concession maps for nine countries","description":"Cameroon, Canada, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Indonesia, Liberia, and the Republic of the Congo\r\n"},"104":{"name":"managed natural forests","description":"Naturally regenerated forests with signs of management, including logging, clear cuts, etc.\r\n"},"91":{"name":"megacities","description":"A city with more than 10 million people.\r\n"},"57":{"name":"megacity","description":"A city with more than 10 million people."},"56":{"name":"mosaic restoration","description":"Restoration that integrates trees into mixed-use landscapes, such as agricultural lands and settlements, where trees can support people through improved water quality, increased soil fertility, and other ecosystem services. This type of restoration is more likely in deforested or degraded forest landscapes with moderate population density (10\u2013100 people per square kilometer). "},"86":{"name":"natural","description":"A forest that is grown without human intervention.\r\n"},"12":{"name":"natural forest","description":"A forest that is grown without human intervention.\r\n"},"63":{"name":"natural forests","description":"A forest that is grown without human intervention.\r\n"},"144":{"name":"open canopy systems","description":"Individual tree crowns that do not overlap to form a continuous canopy layer.\r\n"},"82":{"name":"persistent gain","description":"Forests that have experienced one gain event from 2001 to 2016.\r\n"},"13":{"name":"persistent loss and gain","description":"Forests that have experienced one loss or one gain event from 2001 to 2016."},"97":{"name":"plantation","description":"An area in which trees have been planted, generally for commercial purposes.\u0026nbsp;\r\n"},"93":{"name":"plantations","description":"An area in which trees have been planted, generally for commercial purposes.\u0026nbsp;\r\n"},"88":{"name":"planted","description":"A forest composed of trees that have been deliberately planted and\/or seeded by humans.\r\n"},"14":{"name":"planted forest","description":"Stand of planted trees \u2014 other than tree crops \u2014 grown for wood and wood fiber production or for ecosystem protection against wind and\/or soil erosion.\r\n"},"73":{"name":"planted forests","description":"Stand of planted trees \u2014 other than tree crops \u2014 grown for wood and wood fiber production or for ecosystem protection against wind and\/or soil erosion."},"148":{"name":"planted trees","description":"Stand of trees established through planting, including both planted forest and tree crops."},"149":{"name":"Planted trees","description":"Stand of trees established through planting, including both planted forest and tree crops."},"15":{"name":"primary forest","description":"Old-growth forests that are typically high in carbon stock and rich in biodiversity. The GFR uses a humid tropical primary rainforest data set, representing forests in the humid tropics that have not been cleared in recent years.\r\n"},"64":{"name":"primary forests","description":"Old-growth forests that are typically high in carbon stock and rich in biodiversity. The GFR uses a humid tropical primary rainforest data set, representing forests in the humid tropics that have not been cleared in recent years.\r\n"},"58":{"name":"production forest","description":"A forest where the primary management objective is to produce timber, pulp, fuelwood, and\/or nonwood forest products."},"89":{"name":"production forests","description":"A forest where the primary management objective is to produce timber, pulp, fuelwood, and\/or nonwood forest products.\r\n"},"87":{"name":"seminatural","description":"A managed forest modified by humans, which can have a different species composition from surrounding natural forests.\r\n"},"59":{"name":"seminatural forests","description":"A managed forest modified by humans, which can have a different species composition from surrounding natural forests. "},"96":{"name":"shifting agriculture","description":"Temporary loss or permanent deforestation due to small- and medium-scale agriculture.\r\n"},"103":{"name":"surface roughness","description":"Surface roughness of forests creates\u0026nbsp;turbulence that slows near-surface winds and cools the land as it lifts heat from low-albedo leaves and moisture from evapotranspiration high into the atmosphere and slows otherwise-drying winds. \r\n"},"17":{"name":"tree cover","description":"All vegetation greater than five meters in height and may take the form of natural forests or plantations across a range of canopy densities. Unless otherwise specified, the GFR uses greater than 30 percent tree canopy density for calculations.\r\n"},"71":{"name":"tree cover canopy density is low","description":"Less than 30 percent tree canopy density.\r\n"},"60":{"name":"tree cover gain","description":"The establishment of tree canopy in an area that previously had no tree cover. Tree cover gain may indicate a number of potential activities, including natural forest growth or the crop rotation cycle of tree plantations.\u0026nbsp;As such, tree cover gain does not equate to restoration.\r\n"},"18":{"name":"tree cover loss","description":"The removal or mortality of tree cover, which can be due to a variety of factors, including mechanical harvesting, fire, disease, or storm damage. As such, loss does not equate to deforestation.\r\n"},"150":{"name":"tree crops","description":"Stand of perennial trees that produce agricultural products, such as rubber, oil palm, coffee, coconut, cocoa and orchards."},"19":{"name":"tree plantation","description":"An agricultural plantation of fast-growing tree species on short rotations for the production of timber, pulp, or fruit.\r\n"},"72":{"name":"tree plantations","description":"An agricultural plantation of fast-growing tree species on short rotations for the production of timber, pulp, or fruit.\r\n"},"85":{"name":"trees outside forests","description":"Trees found in urban areas, alongside roads, or within agricultural land\u0026nbsp;are often referred to as Trees Outside Forests (TOF).\u202f\r\n"},"151":{"name":"unmanaged","description":"Naturally regenerated forests without any signs of management, including primary forest."},"105":{"name":"unmanaged natural forests","description":"Naturally regenerated forests without any signs of management, including primary forest.\r\n"}}}