Indicators of Biodiversity and Ecological Services

Greenhouse Gas Fluxes from Forests

Last Updated on April 4, 2024

This indicator aims to monitor the amount of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) released into and absorbed from the atmosphere by forests

Statistics for this indicator are derived from a model  that combined ground measurements and satellite observations with national GHG inventory methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Gross removals (reported by convention as negative values) and gross emissions (reported as positive values) were estimated separately, and the net flux was calculated by subtracting gross emissions from gross removals. Emissions are estimated annually, while removals and net flux are averaged over 23 years. The results, generated at 30-meter resolution, allow GHG fluxes to be calculated in forest areas over a range of sizes.

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What is the global distribution of GHG fluxes from forests?

 

Globally, carbon dioxide removals by existing and regenerating forests exceed GHG emissions from forest disturbances such as deforestation, wood harvest and wildfires. Between 2001 and 2023, emissions from deforestation and other forest disturbances were 9 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2e per year on average, while removals by forests were -14.5 Gt CO2e per year on average.  This resulted in an average net sink of -5.5 Gt CO2e per year, equivalent to the world’s forests removing the annual GHG emissions from the United States. 

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What are GHG Fluxes from Forests?

As forests grow, they reduce the level of CO2 in the atmosphere by absorbing CO2 through photosynthesis and storing the carbon in vegetation and soil. When trees are cut, cleared, or burned and forest soils are tilled or drained for agriculture, CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are released into the atmosphere. 

 

The difference between GHG released (gross emissions) and CO2 absorbed (gross removals) is the net flux. The net flux can therefore be positive (net source, adding GHGs to the atmosphere) or negative (net sink, taking CO2 out of the atmosphere), depending on the balance of gross fluxes.

 

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What is Carbon Dioxide Equivalent?

Different greenhouse gases (GHGs) can have different warming effects due to differences in their ability to absorb energy and in the length of time they persist in the atmosphere. ‘Global warming potential’ was developed to measure how much energy the emissions of one ton of gas will absorb over a given time period (typically 100 years), relative to the emissions of one ton of carbon dioxide (CO2).  Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is a measure used to aggregate emissions from various GHGs on the basis of their 100-year global warming potentials by equating non-CO2 GHGs to the equivalent amount of CO2. Thus, CO2e provides a standardized unit for measuring the warming effects of various GHGs. 

 

Because emissions estimates include CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), this indicator refers to GHGs for emissions and CO2 for removals. Forests in which emissions exceed removals are referred to as a “net source” to the atmosphere, and forests in which removals exceed emissions are referred to as a “net sink”. For consistency, values for emissions (reported as positive values), removals (reported as negative values), and net flux are reported in units of CO2e.

 

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Global GHG fluxes from forests, 2001-2023

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Over the last 23 years, removals by forests in all climate domains (tropical, subtropical, temperate, boreal) exceeded emissions from forest disturbances.  Tropical forests had both the highest average annual gross emissions and gross removals of all climate domains, with average emissions of 5.7 Gt CO2e per year and average removals of -7.1 Gt CO2e per year.  Although tropical forests removed a larger quantity of atmospheric carbon dioxide than forests in other climate domains, average annual gross emissions from disturbances in tropical forests were over 1.5 times the gross emissions from disturbances in temperate, subtropical, and boreal forests combined. As a result, tropical forests made up only 25 percent of the global net forest sink while temperate forests made up 40 percent of the global net forest sink, with an average annual net sink of -2.2 Gt CO2e per year —equivalent to temperate forests removing nearly half of the United States' annual GHG emissions from energy.  In addition to having the largest total net sink, temperate forests also had the largest net sink per hectare, with an average net sink of -3.8 tonnes CO2e per hectare per year. Tropical forests had the smallest net sink per hectare, with an average net sink of -0.7 tonnes CO2e per hectare per year.   

Average annual flux by climate domain, 2001-2023

 

Average annual net flux per hectare by climate domain, 2001-2023

 

The countries with the highest forest-related emissions have extensive forest area, ranging from approximately 29 million hectares—nearly the area of Italy—to 755 million hectares in 2010, the most recent year for which data is available (see the Forest Extent indicator). However, the types of forest disturbances that drove emissions among the top-ten highest emitting countries varied. For Bolivia, Brazil, Indonesia and Malaysia, the majority of forest-related GHG emissions were associated with the clearing of forests for commodity production, reflecting a permanent loss of tree cover.  Meanwhile, the majority of forest-related emissions in China and the United States were associated with forestry operations within these countries, likely reflecting temporary losses of tree cover due to harvesting cycles.  While a substantial proportion of Canada and Russia’s forest-related emissions were also associated with forestry, the majority were due to wildfire.  In Colombia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, most forest-related emissions were associated with shifting agriculture, where forests are cleared for small to medium-scale agricultural production for a few years, and then temporarily abandoned to allow trees to regrow.  Together, these ten countries with the highest gross emissions accounted for approximately 70 percent of global forest-related gross emissions between 2001 and 2023. Brazil had the highest annual forest-related gross GHG emissions, releasing an average of 1.6 Gt CO2e per year, followed by Indonesia (0.96 Gt CO2e per year) and Canada (0.96 Gt CO2e per year). 

The 10 countries with the highest forest emissions, 2001-2023

 

The 10 countries with the highest forest emissions by driver, 2001-2023

 

Global forest emissions, 2001-2023

 

As with emissions, the countries with the highest forest-related removals have extensive forest area, ranging from approximately 21 million hectares to 755 million hectares in 2010 (see the Forest Extent indicator). The ten countries with the highest gross removals accounted for 62 percent of global forest-related gross CO2 removals between 2001 and 2023. Russia had the highest annual forest-related gross CO2 removals, averaging -2.0 Gt CO2e per year, followed by Brazil (-1.8 Gt CO2e per year) and the United States (-1.4 Gt CO2e per year).  Over 95 percent of the removals were from existing forests undisturbed since the year 2000, with the remainder from new forest growth since 2000. 

The 10 countries with the highest forest removals, 2001-2023

 

Global forest removals, 2001-2023

 

Similar to forests globally, removals by forests in most countries exceeded emissions from forest disturbances. However, there are notable exceptions; among countries whose forests were a net source, Indonesia had the highest net emissions from forests (0.35 Gt CO2e per year), followed by Malaysia (0.13 Gt CO2e per year) and Laos (0.06 Gt CO2e per year).  In all three of these countries, the majority of forest-related emissions were due to commodity-driven deforestation. Among countries whose forests were a net sink, Russia had the highest net removals by forests (-1.4 Gt CO2e per year), followed by the United States (-0.63 Gt CO2e per year) and China (-0.49 Gt CO2e year).  In these countries, removals by established, managed and regenerating forests exceeded emissions from disturbances, including harvest and wildfire.

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How do different types of forest disturbances affect GHG fluxes?

Commodity-driven deforestation and forests cleared for urban expansion and intensification likely represent permanent tree cover loss, while forestry, wildfire and shifting agriculture generally entail temporary loss and can be followed by forest regrowth through tree planting or natural regeneration (see the Forest Loss indicator for a description of these disturbances). Globally, gross annual GHG emissions where the dominant driver of tree cover loss was commodity-driven deforestation averaged 2.5 Gt CO2e per year (approximately 28 percent of global forest-related gross GHG emissions), while emissions from urbanization were negligible globally but considerable in some regions, such as the southeastern United States.      The majority of GHG emissions from commodity-driven deforestation were concentrated in tropical forests in South America and Southeast Asia. Brazil and Indonesia accounted for 74 percent of gross annual GHG emissions from commodity-driven deforestation, followed by Malaysia (7 percent), Bolivia (4 percent) and Paraguay (2 percent).  

Production forests produce emissions when trees are harvested and remove CO2 when trees are regrown or left undisturbed. Globally, landscapes dominated by forestry  removed more carbon due to forest management and regrowth than they emitted due to harvesting, providing an average annual net sink of -2.6 Gt CO2e per year (gross emissions of 2.7 Gt CO2e per year and gross removals of -5.4 Gt CO2e per year).  Whether and to what extent production forests are net sinks or sources at smaller scales depends on how they are managed and the area over which fluxes are calculated.  Similarly, forests in shifting agriculture landscapes removed more carbon than they emitted, providing an average annual net sink of -1.1 Gt CO2e per year (gross emissions of 2.5 Gt CO2e per year and gross removals of -3.6 Gt CO2e per year).  Emissions from wildfires are discussed in the box below. 

Annual global GHG emissions by dominant driver of tree cover loss, 2001-2023

 

Annual global GHG emissions from commodity-driven deforestation, 2001-2023

 
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Wildfires

As climate change brings warmer and drier conditions to some regions of the world, the severity and frequency of large wildfires has increased     , leading to increased GHG emissions from fires.  In certain types of forest ecosystems, such as some conifer forests in the western U.S., research has shown that larger, more severe wildfires combined with hotter, drier conditions has hampered the ability of certain tree species to regrow, potentially limiting future carbon storage potential and leading to a transformation of the ecosystem.        In addition to CO2, forest fires are a source of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Although these greenhouse gases do not persist in the atmosphere for as long as CO2, they are much more potent: one tonne of CH4 is estimated to have 28 times the warming impact of one tonne of CO2 over a 100-year time period, while one tonne of N2O is estimated to have 265 times the warming impact of one tonne of CO2.    Globally, wildfires emitted an average of 1.7 Gt CO2e per year between 2001 and 2023. Of this, CO2 accounted for approximately 88 percent of GHG emissions from forests, while CH4 and N2O accounted for approximately 12 percent.  

 

In 2019-2020, Australia experienced one of the most catastrophic fire seasons in the country’s history, demonstrating the human, ecological, and climate impacts of increasingly extreme wildfire events. Research has shown that the devastating fire season can be traced to various factors, including prolonged drought, increased temperatures, high wind speed, lower surface soil moisture, and lower relative humidity, among others.  The impact of these fires on GHG emissions is evident: forest-related GHG emissions associated with wildfire in Australia increased nearly twentyfold in 2019-2020 compared to the annual average from 2001-2018, increasing from an average of 0.02 Gt CO2e per year to an average of 0.33 Gt CO2e per year.   

 

 
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How much of the world’s net sink from forests falls within protected areas and Indigenous lands?

Protected forests and Indigenous lands are demonstrated to provide critical stewardship of forests and their carbon.    Forests in protected areas  had an average annual net sink of -1.7 Gt CO2e per year, accounting for approximately 31 percent of the average annual global net sink from forests. Forests in Indigenous and community lands for which spatial data is available  had an average annual net sink of -0.52 Gt CO2e per year, accounting for 10 percent of the average annual global net sink from forests.  Combined, protected areas and Indigenous lands had an average annual net sink of -1.9 Gt CO2e per year — equivalent to the forest net sink of China and Russia — accounting for 36 percent of the average annual global net sink from forests (note there is some overlap in protected areas and Indigenous and community lands).   

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Quantifying the Climate Benefits of UNESCO World Heritage Forests

UNESCO World Heritage sites are among the world’s most iconic and cherished places. The 257 sites that have been listed for their natural value contain diverse ecosystems that harbor unique and threatened species, support the livelihoods of Indigenous Peoples and local communities, and provide vital ecosystem services.World Heritage Sites are recognized for their Outstanding Universal Value, which is defined by the World Heritage Convention as “cultural and/or natural significance which is so exceptional as to transcend national boundaries and be of common importance for present and future generations of all humanity.” A recent report by UNESCO, WRI, and IUCN found that collectively these sites contain approximately 69 million hectares of forest that provided a net sink of -0.19 Gt CO2e per year on average between 2001 and 2020, equivalent to removing half of the United Kingdom’s annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.UNESCO, WRI, IUCN 2021. World Heritage Forests: Carbon Sinks Under Pressure. https://www.wri.org/research/world-heritage-forests-carbon-sinks-under-pressure. Forests in just five sites accounted for approximately one third of the total net sink in the World Heritage Network: the Tasmanian Wilderness (Australia), Te Wahipounamu (New Zealand), Central Amazon Conservation Complex (Brazil), Salonga National Park (Democratic Republic of the Congo), and the Canadian Rocky Mountain Parks (Canada).  

 

Despite their protected status and high profile, emissions from forest disturbances in World Heritage sites have increased over the past 20 years. The causes of these disturbances vary, but among the most widespread are climate change-induced threats (such as fires, droughts, storms, floods, temperature extremes, and habitat shifting/alteration) and land-use pressures associated with human activities (such as illegal logging, wood harvesting, and agricultural encroachment). As a result of disturbances, forests in ten World Heritage Sites were net sources of greenhouse gases between 2001-2020. The sites with the highest average annual net emissions include the Tropical Rainforest Heritage of Sumatra (Indonesia), Río Plátano Biosphere Reserve (Honduras), and Yosemite National Park (USA). Strong and sustained protection of these forests and their surrounding landscapes is essential to safeguard their critical role in climate regulation. 

 

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Limitations and Future Prospects

GHG flux data for this indicator are derived from the model described in Harris et al. (2021). While that model was developed with the best data available, future updates to the model can incorporate new data as it becomes available, thereby improving the GHG flux estimates used for this indicator. 

As described in Harris et al. (2021), the GHG flux data derived from the model have some limitations.  First, the Global Forest Change data set  used as the basis for tree cover extent and change contains temporal inconsistencies. The tree cover loss data is updated annually through 2023; however, the tree cover gain data represent a cumulative total from 2000-2020, rather than annual gains.  For this reason, gross emissions can be estimated annually while gross removals and net flux are reported as annual averages due to the lack of completeness and temporal resolution in the tree cover gain data. While this limits the ability to estimate annual trends in gross removals and net flux, GHG flux estimates were found to be relatively insensitive to this limitation because the vast majority of carbon removals occurred in forests that were undisturbed throughout the 2000-2020 time period; tree cover gain after 2000 accounted for less than 5% of global gross removals. Regarding emissions, recent years in the tree cover loss data set have been better able to detect certain types of tree cover disturbances, such as fire, selective logging, and shifting agriculture, due to algorithm improvements and the incorporation of data from Landsat 8 (beginning in 2013). This means that loss, and associated emissions, in regions that experienced these types of disturbances are better detected in more recent years. Despite these improvements in recent years, emissions from forest disturbances that are not detected in medium resolution satellite imagery will be underestimated. A new version of the Global Forest Change data set with improved temporal consistency is currently in development. Once available, this data will be incorporated into the model and will improve forest GHG flux estimates. 

Second, uncertainty is higher for estimates of gross removals than for estimates of gross emissions, largely due to high uncertainty for forest carbon removal factors (rate of carbon sequestration) for established temperate forests outside the U.S. and Europe due to a lack of forest inventory data from which to derive these factors. 

Other approaches are also used to estimate GHG fluxes from forests or land, such as observed  or modeled,    changes in tree carbon stocks over time, carbon bookkeeping models,  dynamic global vegetation models  and observation from space with satellites.  However, these models are generally not directly comparable to each other or to the data used for this indicator because of differences in the ways they classify forests, in the data inputs used for model calibration and how emissions and removals are characterized. 

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"},"96":{"name":"shifting agriculture","description":"Temporary loss or permanent deforestation due to small- and medium-scale agriculture.\r\n"},"103":{"name":"surface roughness","description":"Surface roughness of forests creates\u0026nbsp;turbulence that slows near-surface winds and cools the land as it lifts heat from low-albedo leaves and moisture from evapotranspiration high into the atmosphere and slows otherwise-drying winds. \r\n"},"17":{"name":"tree cover","description":"All vegetation greater than five meters in height and may take the form of natural forests or plantations across a range of canopy densities. Unless otherwise specified, the GFR uses greater than 30 percent tree canopy density for calculations.\r\n"},"71":{"name":"tree cover canopy density is low","description":"Less than 30 percent tree canopy density.\r\n"},"60":{"name":"tree cover gain","description":"The establishment of tree canopy in an area that previously had no tree cover. 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Citation

“Greenhouse Gas Fluxes from Forests.” Global Forest Review, updated April 4, 2024. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. Available online at https://research.wri.org/gfr/biodiversity-ecological-services-indicators/greenhouse-gas-fluxes-forests.